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cmacdon View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote cmacdon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Proposed Book
    Posted: 01 Sep 2015 at 11:52am
In reply to previous post responding about Weis Waves I advised

I am now writing a book based on understanding the approaches of a number of the Trading Masters from the last 115 years and building on their approaches with new supply and demand indicators.  The book will come out shortly.  

The new indicators go well beyond my original indicator settings above as I can calculate the gross buying and gross selling volume within bars and across bars so it is very much like understanding a micro economic supply and demand on up waves and down waves. Properly understood and measured supply and demand does drive prices higher or lower. In my opinion, is a much better approach than looking purely at Total Volume or average volume waves.  The indicators can be used in conjunction with other techniques that in the past only relied on time and price dimensions e.g. Hurst Cycles, Elliott Wave, and Merrill Filtered Waves etc.

Below I show a few of the new indicators on charts.  The historical context for the development of the indicators is covered in the book but not below.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote cmacdon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Sep 2015 at 12:05pm
Top Left chart shows the 4 options for what I call a Forensic supply and demand indicator that has a nominated start date and then shows the average supply and demand or the total  supply and demand  or the marginal supply and demand, or the netted off marginal supply and demand from the start date.

Top right chart shows analyses of three ranges using a Gross buying and selling volume wave indicator and a netted off buying and selling volume wave indicator.  The text relates to various Wyckoff type marker/analyses from the chart patterns.

Bottom left is using the Forensic supply and demand indicator to analyse a famous Elliott Wave expert's analysis of the DJIA and calculating where the end of a EW should end based on micro economic supply and demand.  (EW analysis normally does not involve volume in the calculations).

Bottom right is a chart where the price bars are coloured based on supply and demand using supply and demand benchmarked statistics obtained in the past prior to the commencement of the bars on this chart.  So history repeats based on a supply and demand analysis of the past.



.


Edited by cmacdon - 01 Sep 2015 at 12:36pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote cmacdon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Sep 2015 at 12:16pm

Top left chart is showing a Smart Money Detector indicator with a bar by bar setting to analyse supply and demand on each bar.    Bar by bar supply and demand is too hard to make much sense.  The Top right chart is exactly the same indicator but using a higher MA setting for calculating the supply and demand across bars - now you can more clearly see where the buying and selling energies are moving the markets up or down.


Bottom left is where I had been using the Smart Money Detector to monitor the GSPC over last year or so.  It is relatively clear where the indicator is showing Smart Money activity and where distribution has been occurring.

Bottom Right is where  I updated the indicator and setting to have a look at the mini crash last week.  You can see the last bout of good buying volume appeared to end some months back and thereafter the bars are coloured orange or red indicating net selling was in charge, so perhaps suggesting one should not have been long in the market pre the mini crash



Edited by cmacdon - 01 Sep 2015 at 12:39pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote cmacdon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Sep 2015 at 12:26pm
Top left chart is a Hurst envelope cyclical analysis. Hurst Cycles do not usually involve volume analysis.  Bottom two panel  indicators show the buying and selling volume waves corresponding to the cyclical envelope analysis.

Top right chart is a Wave indicator showing the collection of  supply and demand and other statistical information for the previous wave legs.  The indicator can also collect the averaged statistics sampled from the last 5 to 8 waves. 

The book is interspersed with various interesting historical chart analysis.

Bottom left is Gann's famous May Soybean chart that involved astrological planetary lines and various confusing angles in the Master's analysis. 

Bottom Right is a wave indicator applied to the buying and selling activity on the May Soy Bean chart.  In this case the include volume option was tuned off as but not volume was not analysed in Gann's chart and the volume data for the chart period was not available.  The indicator option to exclude volume still simplifies the analysis of what is otherwise a messy chart to try and understand.



Edited by cmacdon - 01 Sep 2015 at 12:44pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote cmacdon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Sep 2015 at 12:30pm
Single chart just showing how  two dimensional price and time data can confuse the understanding of price action but when the real third dimension supply and demand is synchronised with Time and price the chart is more informative.

The indicator picks up the 59 trading day and harmonics thereof for the stock

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Post Options Post Options   Quote cmacdon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 May 2018 at 9:51pm
Dear All I had a personal message yesterday and a private message today asking when my book was coming out.

I apologised yesterday as it has taken 4 years to write instead of my original estimate of 4 months.  It shows how much you do not know when you are forced to test things out.  

My original reply to this forum disappeared so I converted my copy of the contents page will post it as a separate post hopefully that will work. Also, a draft cover will be a separate post.

If I have missed something significant in the contents  let me know and I will try to address it before I finally sign off.

I hope to finish editing and will send it off to the printers after I read a hard copy next week.



Regards

Charles  








Edited by cmacdon - 09 May 2018 at 7:40am
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Post Options Post Options   Quote cmacdon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 May 2018 at 9:52pm




Edited by cmacdon - 09 May 2018 at 7:18am
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Post Options Post Options   Quote cmacdon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 May 2018 at 10:05pm



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Post Options Post Options   Quote cmacdon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 May 2018 at 10:08pm

Contents

  Who Am I, and Why This Book was Written             1

  My Background   2

  The Trading Masters Mind Map     7

1 Vibrations, Oscillations, Periodicity, Waves, and Angles       9

  Some Interpretations of Gann’s Law of Vibration      10

  Using the Averages as a Trend Indicator       12

  Periodicity            14

  There Was a Single US Stock Market and Several US Commodity Markets        16

  Introduction to Gann’s Master Time Factor 17

  Gann’s Quick Angle Method            18

  Gann’s Use of Geometrical Angles  18

  Gann Setting Up a “Money Value” Angle       20

  Jensen’s Use of Angles        21

  Richard Ney’s Use of Angles             22

  The Law of Action and Reaction    23

  Andrew’s Median Line Identification of Price Action and Reaction       24

  Merrill’s Filtered Waves   25

  Garrett Adapting All Three of Newton’s Laws of Motion         26

  Vibrations and Angles – A Summary             26

2 Latent or Hidden Governing Variables for Understanding Financial Markets  28

  Natural Laws for Understanding Financial Markets   28

  Types of Astro Approaches Applied to Understanding Financial Markets            29

  Positions Around the Signs of the Zodiac     30

  Gann’s Conversion of Chart Prices to Degrees of the Zodiac   31

  Gann’s Averaging of Planet Longitudes         31

  Gann’s May Soybean Chart               32

  Jensen’s Use of Astrology   33

  Bayer’s Use of Astrology    34

  The Bible Connection to Astrology                 35

  Bayer’s Strange “Egg of Columbus” 36

  McWhirter’s Use of Astrology         37

  Long’s Use of Astrology     38

  LCdr. William Use of Astrology      38

3 Sacred Geometry, Fibonacci, Elliott Waves, and Space Levels              39

  Dunnigan’s Summary of Natural Laws          39

  Space Measurements          40

  The “At Least 3/8 Retracement Rule”             41

  The Predictive Power of the “At Least 3/8 Retracement” Rule 42

  Gnomic Growth  43

  R.N. Elliott’s Wave Principle and Natural Law            44

  Elliott Wave Analysis Ignores Volume          44

  The “Orthodox View” for the End of Elliott Waves   46

  The Timing Weakness in Elliott Wave Forecasting  48

  Miner’s Dynamic Trading 49

  The Proposed Link Between Natures Law, Waves and Cycles 49

  Casey’s Wavelet Analysis  50

4 Fundamentals, Market Conditions, Time, and Time Cycles  52

  Time as a Fundamental Variable     52

  Four Market Phases            52

  Interpretations of Bull and Bear Campaigns 54

  Gann Following Bull and Bear Campaigns   54

  Gann’s Interpretation of the Four Sections to a Bull Campaign               56

  Gann’s Interpretation of History Repeating in Bull and Bear Campaigns              58

  Conditions Compared to Fundamentals        61

  Time Cycles for Stocks as Distinct from Commodities              63

  The Possible Link between Gann’s Law of Vibrations and Time Cycles                64

  Gann’s Mysterious MTF   65

  Gann’s 1929 Forecast         65

  Dewey and Dakin’s Cycles Analysis 66

  Puetz’s Cycles Analysis       68

  Hurst’s Cycles Analysis       68

5 Other Perspectives of Price Structure         71

  How Dow Theory Developed          71

  A Master Getting into Trouble Using Dow Theory   72

  A Valiant but Failed Attempt to Talk Up Dow Theory  as a Forecasting Approach            74

  Dull Periods Indicating the Buildup of a Cause            76

  Forecasting Breakouts from Dull Periods or Ranges  77

  Volatility as an Effect         77

  Wyckoff’s Idealization of a Bottoming Range where Accumulation is Occurring               77

  Selecting which Markets to Trade  80

  Large Operators Who Went Broke, and the Implications for Manipulation        80

6 Relative Total Volume, Supply & Demand, and Manipulation             82

  Wyckoff’s Tape Reading   83

  Gann’s Tape Reading         85

  Standard Scaled Chart Paper            86

  Neill’s Tape Reading           86

  Neill’s Interpretation of Volume      87

  Neill’s General Principles for Understanding Volume                88

  Wyckoff’s Three Laws for Understanding the US Stock Market             88

  A Natural Law Interpretation as to How Volume Affects Prices, and Manipulation           90

  Why was Wyckoff not Fooled by Gann’s Talk of a Law of Vibration    91

  The Penny Drops                91

  Manipulation       95

  The Process of Legal Manipulation 96

  The Art of Legal Manipulation        97

  Identifying Manipulation, if it Exists              98

  The Importance of Volume and Supply & Demand When Monitoring a Forecast             99

  What Happened to the Discussion of Volume in Gann’s Later Writings?             100

  Illegal Manipulation           100

  Bar by Bar Chart Reading Including the Principles Underlying VSA     102

  Ord’s Average Volume Waves, and Weis’s Total Volume Waves          104

  Garrett’s Use of Volume to Identify Cycles   105

7 Viewing Perspectives     108

  The Two Paradigms for Understanding the Financial Markets Natural Law or Manipulation         108

  Dewey and Dakin’s Argument about Perceiving Cause and Effect          108

  The Third, or is it the Fourth Dimension for Understanding a Financial Market?             110

  How the Trading Masters Perceived Cause and Effect               111

8 Developing a Traditional Knowledge Bar by Bar Chart Reading Indicator        113

  Lessons from a Failed Attempt at Capturing the Expertise of Trading Masters   114

  Consistency Problems with Coding What Experts Say              116

  Avoid Exception Rules      117

  Coloring the Relative Total Volume Bars     118

  Use Flexible Perspectives-A SOW May End up as SOS or Vice Versa   118

  Avoid Using Hindsight      119

  The Elegant Bar by Bar Indicator    119

  Coding One’s Own Bar by Bar Understanding of a Financial Market     120

  Subtleties of Light (or Lite) Demand              121

  Subtleties of Indices and Large Cap Stocks Compared to Small Cap Stocks          122

  Defining Turning Points that Identify Market Structure           122

  Reading a Market Top       123

  The Buying Climax             124

  Avoid Trying To Be Too Specific When Defining Price Vibrations      127

  Gartley’s Chart of The New York Times 50 Stock Averages 1911 to 1938           129

  Identifying Bar by Bar Market Structure Using the DJIA Weekly 1911 to 1938  131

  A Quick Lighter-Volume Market Trend Assessment 132

  An Assessment of an Uptrend Where Distribution was Occurring        133

  Does the Bar by Bar and Market Structure Indicator Work?    135

  Case Study-A 1914 Cold Case          136

  Case Study-A Post Mortem of Hamilton’s announcements  pre and during the 1929 Crash             141

  Wyckoff’s Daily Chart of the NYT50 for the Period Dec 1930 to Nov 1931        142

  Bar by Bar Indicator-A Comparison to Wyckoff’s 1932 Chart Reading Logic     143

  Case Study-The 1987 Stock Market Crash    145

  Case Study–A 1998 Bottoming Range with a Selling Climax and a Shakeout       148

  Contemporary Events in 2016-the Shock Brexit, and the US Election, Results    150

  Bar by Bar Review of the GSPC500               151

9 Deriving the New Way-The 6 Paths Time & Price and Buying & Selling Volume Formula          153

  Keely’s Concept of Vibrations and Oscillations            153

  Garrett’s Original Torque Analysis Formula 155

  Torque Analysis Allocation of the Buying and Selling Volume Components       157

  The Amended 6 Paths Gross Supply & Demand Vibration Formula      158

  Reconciliation of the Six Price Paths Price Vibration Formula 159

  Derivation of the Accumulated Total, Average, and the Marginal, Buying and Selling, Volume     161

  Interpreting the Amount of Supply & Demand Effort or Buyer and Seller Behaviors        161

  The Gross, Buying and Selling, Volume Within Natural Waves            162

  The Net, Buying and Selling, Volume Within Natural Waves 163

  Reconciling Gross and Net, Buying and Selling, Volume Within Natural Waves               164

  Interpreting the Marginal Change in Supply & Demand  Within Trends, or Any Chart Pattern     167

  A Review of Some Historical Charts              171

  Case Study Understanding Supply & Demand Leading to the 1929 Crash             171

  Case Study Understanding Supply & Demand during the Great Depression        172

  Supply & Demand, or Cause and Effect, in a Modern Market  173

10 The 6 Paths Measurements of the Forces of Supply & Demand         178

  The Garrett Bal% Statistic 178

  The SM Bal% Measurement of the Force of Supply or Demand              179

  The SM Bal% Pulse Indicator           179

  The Cause of Cyclical Price Action, and the Snake to Serpent Indicator                182

  Further Examples of Measuring the Forces of Supply & Demand           184

  Identifying the Four Market Stages from a Supply & Demand Perspective           188

  The Accumulating SM Bal% Indicator           189

  The “Appropriate Sizing” Technique to Make Microeconomic Supply & Demand Sense  189

  Another Example, Identifying, “Appropriately Sized” Filtered Waves   192

  Periodic Recalculations of the Accumulating SM Bal% for Monitoring a Market                194

  The 6 Paths Candlesticks and the SM Bal% Forces of Supply & Demand              197

  The 6 Paths H, L & C Bars and the SM Bal% Forces of Supply & Demand            200

11 Measuring, Stock, Money Value, and Equilibrium Price Vibrations 201

  Understand Market Conditions Before Sampling Price Vibration Measurements               203

  Stock Vibrations and Wave Characteristics 204

  Working out Geometrical Angles from Sampled Vibrations   205

  Obtaining Historical Stock Vibrations from a Relevant Stage Analysis  207

  Using the Snake to Serpent Indicator to Clarify Market Stages                208

  Extracting Historical Stock Vibrations using Radius Vectors   210

  A Gann Mini-World Vibration Indicator     212

  Two False Trading Starts When Coming Out of a New Stage 1             214

  Introducing Equilibrium Price Vibrations for Longer-Term Forecasting             215

  The 6 Paths Annualized Money Value Equilibrium Rate of Return Indicator      216

  The 6 Paths Vibration Tracker Indicator      216

12 Volatility is an Effect, not a Cause of Price Action 220

  Case Study 1-Supply & Demand as the Underlying Cause of Volatility  220

  Case Study 2- Supply & Demand as the Underlying Cause of Volatility 221

13 Single Wave Time & Price Vibration Forecasts, and Wavelet Forecasts         225

  Extracting Time & Price Wave Vibrations from a Previous Stage 2 Market Phase             225

  Traditional Geometrical Angle Forecasting using Averaged Stock Vibrations     226

  A Separate Forecasting Reality        230

  Sampling Changing Wave Characteristics and Automated Forecasting Squares 231

  Single Wave Forecasting Practice – The Basics           234

  Study the Historical Causes, and Forecast Future Likely Effects              242

  A Forecast Within a Forecast Indicator         243

  The Next Down Wave Forecast     246

  Wavelet Pattern Forecasting            247

14 Forensic and Periodic Market Analyzes   250

  Forensic Analysis of Supply & Demand Toolkits         250

  Periodic Recalculations of a Forensic Analysis of Supply & Demand      252

  Case Study-Distinguishing Cycles Versus Trends       256

15 Analyzing Dull Markets Where the Big Money is to be Made            264

  Case Study Analyzing Three Quite Different Narrow Trading Ranges  265

  The First Dull Period         266

  The Second Dull Period    268

  The Third Dull Period       271

  Using Periodic Recalculation Indicators        274

  Case study-A 1948 Line Pattern on the DJIA                275

  Case Study-A David Weis Chart Reading Skills Test 281

  Case Study-A Difficult Trading Range to Analyze      286

16 Measuring Planetary Vibrations, and Planetary Rhythms in the Stock Market              292

  Planets Ingressing and Passing Through the Signs of the Zodiac            292

  A Gann Astro Perspective 293

  Other Astro Perspectives for Soybeans          295

  The New “Quick Heliocentric Planet Trading Day Vibration” Calculations          297

  The Gann Mini-World Forecasting Indicator Using Planetary Vibrations           300

  Adapting Gann’s Concept of Averaging Planetary Vibrations 301

  A Trading Experiment relating to Etheric Vibrations                302

  Trading Lunations              304

  A Trading Experiment relating to a Supermoon Event              305

17 Self-Adapting Angles  Leading to the Third Dimension      307

  Comparing Self-Adapting Angles to Historically Measured Angles?       308

  Self-Adapting Angle Indicator Using a Planetary Longitude Vibration 314

  Matching an Averaged Stock Vibration to a Planet Longitude Vibration             315

  The Third-Dimension Indicator Perspective               316

18 Market Structure Based on the Forces of Supply & Demand               320

  Time & Price Based Market Structure            320

  Supply & Demand Based Market Structure   321

  The SM Bal% Spike Indicator          321

  Further Examples of the SM Bal% Spike Indicator      324

  A 6 Paths Supply & Demand Interpretation  of Wyckoff’s Three Important Laws              328

  The Law of Supply & Demand from a 6 Paths Spike Indicator Perspective           328

  The Law of Cause and Effect from a 6 Paths Spike Indicator Perspective              329

  The Law of Effort Versus Result from a 6 Paths Spike Indicator Perspective       329

  Case Studies-Major Tops and Bottoms  from a 6 Paths Spike Indicator Perspective           332

19 Quantifying Stock Market Manipulation 335

  The Mathematics of Churning Stocks Without Being Seen     335

  Case Study-Was Abnormal Shorting Activity Taking Place?   340

  Case Study–Do Raging Bull Campaigns Still Occur?  343

  Case Study-Richard Ney’s Claim of Manipulation of the DJIA 30 Stocks              346

  Quantification-Could the IBM Specialist Make Substantial Profits?       347

  IBM-The True Story Comes Out    351

20 Action and Reaction, Price Tunnels and Long Term Price Vibration Forecasting        353

  Step 1 - Sampling Minimal Risk Price Vibrations from the Past              353

  Step 2 – Applying a Minimal Risk  40.7% Annualized Money Value Rate Angle 355

  Step 3 – Apply the Minimal Risk Price Vibrations from the Past to the Future   356

  Step 4 – Identifying any Structural Changes in the Price Channels         357

  Step 5 – Relative Strength Vibration Comparisons    358

  Step 6 – The Money Value Vibration Viewing Perspective      361

  A NASDAQ Case Study, Looking for a Trump Effect on Prices              365

  The Four Fang Stocks       367

  An alternative perspective as to whether History was Repeating            371

21 Interactive Short-Term Forecasting         375

 Geometrical Angle Forecasting Utilizing the Forces of Supply & Demand           375

22 Gann’s Master Time Factor, Identified, Explained, and Tested          381

  Prof. Weston’s Jupiter/Saturn Synodic Cycle 1928 Research Paper        382

  Prof. Weston’s 10-Year Pattern       386

  My Musings about Gann’s Interactions with Prof. Weston      387

  Gann’s Time Cycles            390

  Gann’s Problematic Dataset Sizes for Working Out Great Time Cycle Periods   392

  Annual Stock Market Patterns Are Not the Same as Time Cycles           393

  Decennial Pattern Research  Compared to 10-year Time Cycles in the US Financial Markets         394

  Gann’s Master Time Factor Identified           398

  Comparison of Gann’s MTF Pattern  to other Decennial Pattern Research Conclusions  400

  What Causes 10-Year Cycles and Decennial Patterns?               402

  Identifying Gann’s “Rules for Future Cycles” 403

  Compliance Test of the 1936 MTF Pattern  with Gann’s “Rules for Future Cycles”            405

  Compliance Test of Prof. Weston’s Pattern  to Gann’s “Rules for Future Cycles”                406

  The Conundrum “Rule 7 for Future Cycles” 408

  The Numerology of Gann’s 1936 MTF Pattern            410

  The Accuracy of the 1936 MTF Pattern for Forecasting the Stock Market – an 8-Year Test           410

  The Accuracy of the 1936 MTF Pattern for Forecasting the Stock Market –a 60-Year Test             412

  Calculating a Single “Law of Price Vibration” Rate to use with Gann’s 1936 MTF pattern                415

  The Accuracy of the 1936 MTF Pattern for Forecasting the Stock Market  – a 40-Year Test           415

  Does Gann’s MTF Pattern Still Work -a 28-Year test well into the early part of the 21st Century 418

23 Conclusions About Different Chart Reading Perspectives  420

  A Wykoff Case Study by Jim Forte 420

  The 6 Paths Minor and Major Creek Indicator Perspective      423

  Two 6 Paths Bal% Spike Indicator Perspectives           425

  6 Paths Forensic and Periodic Analyses Perspectives of Forte’s Case Study           425

  Two Wykoff Case Studies by Richard A. Dickson and Tracy L. Knudsen             427

  A Third Wykoff Case Study by Jim O’Brien 432

Appendix A Seeking Gann’s (Later in Life) Understanding of Supply & Demand               437

Appendix B Looking Back in Time at Perceived Time Cycles  444

  Looking Back at Perceived Time Cycles at Tops,  or the End of Bull Campaigns 446

  Looking Back at Perceived Time Cycles at Panic Years  or the End of Bear Campaigns     449

  Gann’s 1929 Forecast         452

Appendix C Real Cycles and Real Waves      455

  The Snake to Serpent, Time, Price and Cycle, Indicator            455

  Further Example-The Snake to Serpent with SM Bal% Measurement Indicator 460

  Using the Forces of Supply & Demand to Identify Real Cycles 461

  Catching a Single Vibration and Turning it  into a Wave and then into a Cycle 464

  Sampling Multiple Vibrations, and the Derived Forecasting Wavelets  465

Appendix D Difficulties EW Experts had Agreeing  on their Elliott Wave Forecasts        470

Appendix E Mechanics for Constructing a Planetary Line Indicator      474

  Long Form Code for a Planet Line and Harmonic Line  Vibration Indicator       475

  Short Form Code for a Planet Heliocentric Trading Day Indicator         478

  Long Form and Short Form Planetary and Harmonic Lines, and Other Vibration Examples           482

  What do Planetary Lines Represent?              485

About the Author                486

Bibliography         487



Edited by cmacdon - 09 May 2018 at 7:33am
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Post Options Post Options   Quote paulchow2k Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Jul 2018 at 9:32pm
i cant find the book anywhere
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