Bear Market Bottom - HOW TO PICK THE BOTTOM?

BEFORE POSTING a Reply to this particular Topic, please read the information below, and look for a very specific “sub topic” with an appropriate name.

Introduction/Background

With the Aussie share market the way it is now (at 27 Nov 2008, after a 12 month bear market), we will probably see a "bear market bottom" at some stage over the next few months. And when we do, the traders who are quick to spot it, and who have good money management plans in place to protect their money, might stand to make some very good money. (BUT, watch out for sucker rallies over the next few weeks and months).

This topic came up at our Melbourne BullCharts User Group meeting last week. And we decided to all have a think about how we can look for the bear market bottom over the coming months - the things to look for in both price charts and index charts, as well as in the news, and in the economy in general. And we agreed that at the December 2008 meeting (Wednesday 17 December in Oakleigh) we will put all our ideas on the table, and work out how to use BullCharts to assist us in this endeavour.

THIS Discussion Topic

To help guide the thinking and to share ideas up front, I am creating this Discussion Topic to introduce and kick off the discussion. This topic is for general information about bear market bottoms — NOT specific clues on bottoms.

I will create a couple of other New Discussion Topics on specific aspects (ie. “sub topics”) so that we can keep our ideas and comments structured and separate. Otherwise we will end up with one huge discussion topic with lots of mingled up (mashed up) ideas.

What should you do?

If you have a suggestion for one way to help identify a bear market bottom, then please look in the Forum for an existing Topic (not this particular one, which we will keep for general information).

If you can't find an existing Topic that covers your suggestion, then please feel free to create a New Topic, and you can start the discussion on that idea. After the bear market bottoms, if we find in hindsight that your idea/suggestion was a really good one, then you might become famous for telling us.

CAUTION: Any information on this forum is general in nature. Nothing that you read here can be construed as financial advice. Any information here is just for discussion and education. Your own personal financial situation has not been considered. THIS FORUM DOES NOT CONTAIN INVESTMENT ADVICE!!